Nearly every dimension of geopolitics and the global geostrategic relationships in the 21st Century will be shaped in some form or fashion by both advances in tech, and these advances will in turn be shaped by the speed with which tech is evolving. The new U.S. administration will need to navigate these complex realities. While it is useful to draw insights from the first Trump administration’s approach to tech, these realities have changed dramatically over the past four years. Some technologies have advanced so rapidly that they are nearly unrecognizable compared to just a few years ago, and the dynamics of global competition have evolved alongside them.
The ideas elaborated in this text are based on insights from a discussion hosted by the GLOBSEC GeoTech Center in Washington, D.C., at the beginning of December 2024. The event brought together policymakers, leaders, and experts from the U.S. and Europe to explore the challenges and opportunities facing the Trump administration in addressing foreign policy issues shaped by cutting-edge technologies and global competition.
Key Takaways
Strategic Challenges and Solutions for the New Administration
- Technological Edge: Securing our technological edge is critical to addressing challenges from nations like China, Russia, and Iran. This is a matter of national security, demanding lessons from history and current events. No single entity can manage this alone; gaps and indecision will create vulnerabilities. Unified, decisive action is imperative.
- Authoritarian vs. Democratic Innovation: Authoritarian governments, such as those in China and Russia, often excel in leveraging technology effectively due to their ability to act decisively and direct innovation toward state objectives. Because there’s virtually no separation between the governments and the “private sector”, these regimes impose mandates on their tech sectors to serve strategic goals, enabling them to harness advancements and move to application efficiently. In contrast, democratic governments, despite possessing some of the world’s best technology, often struggle to fully utilize and integrate their innovations due to systemic constraints and inefficiencies.
Consequently, democracies may find themselves at a technological disadvantage—not because of a lack of innovation, but because of onerous regulatory constraints, and challenges in mobilizing and aligning their advancements. - Non-Kinetic Warfare: Shift from Kinetic to Non-Kinetic Warfare: While the Westphalian, state-centric system will still dominate state to state relationships, technology is increasingly being used as a more effective means of advancing state interests than traditional military actions (kinetic warfare). Russia’s actions in the cyber and information domains, aimed at undermining Ukraine’s fledgling democracy and Russia’s and China’s direct interference in governance and in the societies of other countries, particularly democracies, through non-kinetic means, illustrate this shift.
- Big Tech’s Role: Large tech companies have significant resources, global reach, and expertise, making them uniquely capable of addressing complex technological challenges. Their appearance on the world stage can both complement and compromise the state-centric system of international relations. As these private sector entities increase their global influence there will inevitably be adjustments to the system of international relations. Whether or not these adjustments favour the international rules-based system remains to be determined.